Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.003364 0.003693 0.004045 0.004449 0.004902 0.005393 0.005970
2026-01-11 0.002774 0.003228 0.003748 0.004390 0.005165 0.006076 0.007235
2026-01-18 0.002434 0.002945 0.003557 0.004350 0.005360 0.006615 0.008310
2026-01-25 0.002180 0.002720 0.003390 0.004292 0.005491 0.007050 0.009264
2026-02-01 0.002011 0.002575 0.003298 0.004306 0.005695 0.007577 0.010373
2026-02-08 0.001848 0.002419 0.003171 0.004251 0.005790 0.007949 0.011291
2026-02-15 0.001699 0.002268 0.003034 0.004164 0.005821 0.008224 0.012080
2026-02-22 0.001605 0.002183 0.002980 0.004184 0.006003 0.008724 0.013255
2026-03-01 0.001550 0.002147 0.002989 0.004292 0.006318 0.009447 0.014858
2026-03-08 0.001451 0.002040 0.002885 0.004223 0.006351 0.009729 0.015758
2026-03-15 0.001359 0.001938 0.002782 0.004143 0.006357 0.009962 0.016592
2026-03-22 0.001291 0.001864 0.002716 0.004115 0.006443 0.010330 0.017699
2026-03-29 0.001239 0.001816 0.002690 0.004155 0.006656 0.010952 0.019387
2026-04-05 0.001168 0.001736 0.002609 0.004101 0.006705 0.011299 0.020612
2026-04-12 0.001109 0.001668 0.002542 0.004065 0.006780 0.011694 0.021977
2026-04-19 0.001050 0.001599 0.002469 0.004011 0.006817 0.012020 0.023242
2026-04-26 0.001010 0.001557 0.002437 0.004023 0.006974 0.012587 0.025088
2026-05-03 0.000961 0.001497 0.002371 0.003973 0.007008 0.012915 0.026456
2026-05-10 0.000911 0.001432 0.002293 0.003892 0.006977 0.013107 0.027544
2026-05-17 0.000881 0.001401 0.002270 0.003911 0.007140 0.013714 0.029680
2026-05-24 0.000867 0.001394 0.002289 0.004011 0.007472 0.014707 0.032904
2026-05-31 0.000827 0.001342 0.002225 0.003947 0.007464 0.014967 0.034336
2026-06-07 0.000789 0.001290 0.002159 0.003873 0.007430 0.015162 0.035633